we publish the record.
Every forecast is made before the incident it describes. Every one is checked against what the police recorded afterwards. Over 1 million forecasts published.
the cases
Newham, May 2025
22 / 22
We forecast 22 incidents of serious violence in one neighbourhood. The police recorded 22.
Wolverhampton, November 2025
20 / 20
We forecast 20 incidents of domestic abuse in one neighbourhood. The police recorded 20.
Blackpool, April 2025
17 / 17
We forecast 17 incidents of domestic abuse in one neighbourhood. The police recorded 17.
how the checking works
Dawn forecasts first, then waits. When the police record for that month is published, we hold every forecast against it, in the open. In our latest validation run, 67,050 out of sample forecasts produced 6,063 confirmed calls at neighbourhood level.
Don't trust us. Check us. The full methodology and evidence pack are available on request.
If you or someone you know needs support now.
The National Domestic Abuse Helpline is free and confidential, 24 hours a day: 0808 2000 247. In an emergency, always call 999.