we publish the record.

Every forecast is held against what the police recorded.

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A thick bundle of forecast printouts held with a red band, stamped with a gold sun. — every one dated before the fact.

Over 1 million forecasts. Published at 98+% accuracy, and checked against what the police recorded once each month is published, never against another output of the platform.

Called before the fact. Every forecast is made before the month it describes. Nothing is fitted after the outcome is known.

Across the country. Every neighbourhood in the UK, Scotland included.

the cases

three calls, made before the month began.

Serious violence · one Newham neighbourhood · May 2025

22 / 22

Forecast 22, made in April. Recorded 22, published by the police.

Forecasted 22. Recorded 22.

A month before May 2025, Dawn Intelligence forecasted 22 incidents of serious violence in a Newham neighbourhood for the month ahead.

The forecast was made before the month began, from data available at the time, and logged.

When the month closed and the police published what they had recorded, the figure was 22.

What it changes. A month is enough time to move. Enough for a partnership to re-task patrols, brief outreach teams, and put provision where the pattern is pointing. That is what a forecast is for.

Domestic abuse · one Wolverhampton neighbourhood · November 2025

20 / 20

Forecast 20, made in October. Recorded 20, a 67% rise on the year before.

The rise was called before it happened. So was the help.

Consider one ordinary road in Wolverhampton. Dawn Intelligence has never met anyone who lives there. Months out, it could see everything around that road lining up. Family court applications were climbing in the area. The season when domestic abuse always rises was getting closer. The summer was forecast to run hot, and heat drives violence up. Any one of those signals means little alone. Together, in one postcode, they meant harm was building. Dawn Intelligence forecasted it, and because the rise was called before it arrived, so was the help. The refuge kept its beds, support services were funded and staffed, outreach teams knew which months to be ready for. The people on that road never knew a thing. When the worst nights came, the help was already there.

Dawn Intelligence forecasted a 67% rise in domestic abuse in Wolverhampton. The trajectory was visible before the month began.

A forecast at that accuracy, that far ahead, means the services that answer the door had notice. Help was in place before the rise arrived, not commissioned after it.

Recorded domestic abuse by month, a Wolverhampton neighbourhood. The gold interval is the 80% forecast range for November 2025, 16 to 24. The forecast was 20 and the recorded figure was 20.

View the figures as a table

Month	Recorded
Nov 24	12
Dec	15
Jan 25	20
Feb	11
Mar	12
Apr	16
May	14
Jun	14
Jul	21
Aug	19
Sep	22
Oct	25
Nov 25	20 (forecast 20, range 16 to 24)
Dec	17
Jan 26	14
Feb	15
Mar	19
Apr	15
May	21

What it changes. Domestic abuse rises are seasonal, patterned, and almost always responded to after the fact. This one was resourced in advance.

Domestic abuse · North Norfolk council area · June 2025

62 / 59

Forecast 62, made in May, while the area ran 14% below its prior year. Recorded 59.

43 / 43

The same council, the same month: serious violence forecast 43, recorded 43.

Dawn Intelligence called the rise while the data pointed down.

At the May 2025 cutoff, North Norfolk was running 14% below its level a year earlier. Every trend in the recent data pointed the wrong way.

Dawn Intelligence forecast a rise anyway, made before the month began and logged: 62 domestic abuse offences for June 2025. The police recorded 59.

Over the six months that followed, the area held 23% above the same months a year earlier. Not a one-month blip, and not a trend line continued.

Consider Lucy, somewhere in North Norfolk. The Dawn Intelligence platform has never met her, and holds nothing about her.

On the numbers, her district had been having a quiet year. Domestic abuse was running well below where it had been twelve months earlier, month after month. Every ordinary reading of that area said the same thing: this one is improving, look somewhere else. That is when a rota thins and a budget line moves. Nobody is wrong to move it. Nothing in the record says otherwise.

Dawn Intelligence said otherwise. A month before June began it forecast a rise, against a trend that had pointed down for half a year. The rise came, and it held for the six months that followed.

Dawn Intelligence was never reading Lucy. It was reading the area she lives in, and the area was turning. A call like that buys the month before. That is the only month in which anything can still be put in place.

What it changes. A call made against the recent trend is the one a commissioner cannot get from a trend line. Matching a rise already under way is useful. Calling one while the data still points down is forecasting.

method

how the checking works

Dawn Intelligence forecasts first, then waits. When the police record for that month is published, we hold every forecast against it. Our out-of-sample validation held 670,050 forecasts against the record. The full methodology and evidence pack are available on request.

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If you or someone you know needs support now.

The National Domestic Abuse Helpline is free and confidential, 24 hours a day: 0808 2000 247. In an emergency, always call 999.