The report · November 2026
forecasting incidents of harm across the uk.
Accuracy, cases and prevention, March 2025 to August 2026. Every forecast in it was saved with the date and time it was made, and checked against the police record.
downloads since 9 November. PDF, free, no sign up.
What's in it
three parts. none of them take our word for it.
how right it was, month by month.
Eighteen months of forecasts, one to twelve months ahead, measured against what the police recorded afterwards. The fifty sharpest rises it called are plotted against the record, so anyone can check one.
three places that were already on the list.
Three neighbourhoods where women were attacked this year, each already named in a forecast Dawn Intelligence had saved before it happened. The dates are in the report.
what to do with a forecast.
What a council, a charity or an employer can do in the months between a forecast and the harm it describes. It is the section we most want people to read.
The cases
we said where. we said when.
Three women were attacked this year in neighbourhoods Dawn Intelligence had already named. We took the forecasts to the Home Office and the police and were told to come back later. The report publishes everything, with the dates.
Birmingham
The neighbourhood was in a forecast saved before it happened. Forecast date and police record in the report.
Nottingham
The neighbourhood was in a forecast saved before it happened. Forecast date and police record in the report.
Milton Keynes
The neighbourhood was in a forecast saved before it happened. Forecast date and police record in the report.
0808 500 2222 National Domestic Abuse Helpline (24 hours) 0808 2000 247 In an emergency 999 Who it's for
if your job is keeping people safe, it was written for you.
councils
Where refuge beds, domestic violence advisers, outreach and community safety spend go, and when. The report sets out what a council can do a year, a quarter and a month ahead. What a council gets
charities and services
Refuges, outreach teams and night time services can see where demand is heading before it arrives and plan staffing and outreach around it. Talk to us
employers
Retail, hospitality, transport and care employers with a duty of care to staff and customers can evidence what they knew and what they did about it. Employers
press
The embargo lifted at 00:01 on Monday 9 November 2026. Everything in the report can be quoted. For interviews, the data behind a case, or a comment on a story, email press@dawn-intel.com.
- Cover image and key figures sheet
- Founder photo and bio
- Case-by-case data on request
cite it
Use this reference when you quote the report.